As Europe transitions towards a greener and more sustainable economy, there is a growing recognition of the importance of securing access to critical raw materials. SPES Researchers from the University of Florence Tiziano Distefano, Luca Lodi and Prof. Mario Biggeri recently published on Journal of Cleaner Production a paper examining the material footprint and import dependency of the European Union (EU27) members, focusing on four key material categories: biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, and non-metals. Their analysis employs a combination of Structural Decomposition Analysis and Business-as-usual scenario analysis to investigate the dynamics of raw material use and trade with a focus on EU27. The study titled “Material footprint and import dependency in EU27: Past trends and future challenges” also aims to assess the feasibility and efficacy of EU strategies.
Despite the EU27’s relatively small role in global material extraction—constituting approximately 7% of biomass, 2% of metal ores, 9% of non-metals, and 2% of fossil fuels—it maintains a significant material footprint, highlighting its external dependence on raw materials. The EU27 ranks among the main users of materials, particularly in the years 2013 and 2014, underscoring its substantial demand and reliance on global supply chains for these critical resources.
Using Structural Decomposition Analysis between 2012 and 2020, Researchers identified the impacts of macroeconomic drivers such as technological progress, structural changes, and final consumption patterns on material use. The analysis indicates a gradual shift towards the relative decoupling of GDP from material use in the EU27, particularly for non-metals and fossil fuels. Additionally, the region shows a decreasing dependency on non-EU countries, as evidenced by the reduction in net trade over recent years.
However, the Business-As-Usual scenario projects material usage and import reliance up to 2030, assessing the EU27’s ability to meet the Critical Raw Material Act targets. The results reveal significant import dependencies from the rest of the world, particularly for fossil fuels (90.9%) and metal ores (86.2%), where nearly all EU27 countries exceed the 65% import dependency threshold. While biomass and non-metals show more promise in terms of self-sufficiency, challenges remain.
Imports of raw material from EU27 presents additional complexities, and requires significant considerations. Rare earth minerals, in particular, present a formidable challenge. The EU27’s reliance on these critical materials is exacerbated by the high concentration of supply from China, which accounts for approximately 80% of the global production of rare earth elements. This dependency poses a strategic risk, as geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions could severely disrupt supply chains and impact a wide range of industries, from electronics to renewable energy technologies.
Ther analysis emphasizes the importance of integrated policy interventions at the EU level to drive meaningful progress towards relative dematerialization, i.e. reducing overall raw material use, in line with integrated frameworks on sustainability transition. This necessitates a holistic approach that addresses not only technological advancements but also changes in societal behaviours, consumption patterns, and regulatory frameworks. Furthermore, it underscores the need for improved international cooperation and partnerships to address global resource challenges collaboratively.
To access the full publication and read more on methodologies and discussion
The paper has been written by Tiziano Distefano,University of Florence; Luca Lodi, University of Florence; Prof. Mario Biggeri, University of Florence.
